Stock Market Summary – June 18, 2025

The Federal Reserve voted to keep interest rates unchanged at a range of 4.25%-4.5%, mirroring market expectations. While no changes are expected imminently, the central bank hinted at two potential rate cuts by the close of 2025, down from the previous three. In terms of economic forecasts, the committee predicted the gross domestic product (GDP) to progress at a rate of 1.4% in 2025 and inflation to reach 3%.

In the semiconductor sector, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has seen a significant upturn, with the share price rising nearly 9% at the start of the week. Notably, the stock successfully managed to push past the 13-, 26-, and 40-week moving averages, potentially signaling further gains. However, despite robust grow in the short term, the pace is expected to slow down.

Cybersecurity stocks, including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks, have remained relatively stable, even amid global geopolitical tensions, like the conflict between Iran and Israel. The stability likely stems from the increasing criticality of cybersecurity across industries.

Shares of major crypto companies Circle and Coinbase saw prices surge following reports that the Senate passed the GENIUS act, which aims to govern the issuance of stablecoins. The news increased take values by 22% and 10% for Circle and Coinbase, respectively.

Lastly, Ned Davis Research suggests that the record-high household ownership of US stocks could potentially be a negative indicator for the market. Households have invested about 48% of their portfolio into stocks during Q1. With the S&P500 nearing record-highs, there may be a limited margin for future buying. Meanwhile, other experts have raised concerns over the record-high foreign ownership of US equities, which sits at 18%. Should there be a drop in the trade deficit, this might result in fewer dollars being recycled into the US stock market.

Shares of steel producer Nucor increased by more than 3% thanks to a promising guidance for their Q2 earnings, despite a dip in Steel Dynamics guidance causing a 1% fall in the stock. Among significant movers, Scholar Rock Holding shares soared nearly 15% after a positive report on its experimental drug. Affirm saw a 3% rise after announcing a new loan sale facility with Prudential. Sunrun and Bausch Health both saw a bump in their stocks by 5% and 8% respectively. However, CERo Therapeutics and Zoetis saw declines of 30% and 3%.

In other news, Nippon Steel completed its acquisition of U.S. Steel, with shares removed from NYSE listing. Meanwhile, Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, was attacked by hackers, leading to a loss of over $90 million in cryptocurrencies.

Lastly, following a 19.5% spike in oil futures, history suggests that investors should diversify away from automakers and airlines while favoring tech stocks resistant to increases in oil prices and broader geopolitics. Specifically, chip manufacturers Advanced Micro Devices and Monolithic Power Systems tend to see a rise in stock performance following significant oil price hikes. CSX, C.H. Robinson, and Xylem also reflect this trend. However, consumer-driven companies like Ford, United Airlines and Target tend to see a dip.