The S&P 500 remained mostly unchanged this week, closing at 6,840.51, as investors anticipated the interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq Composite gained slightly by 0.13%, ending the day at 23,576.49, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 179.03 points, or 0.38%, to 47,560.29 due to a decline in JPMorgan shares. JPMorgan fell because of higher-than-expected expense projections for 2026.
The market is strongly anticipating a rate cut from the Fed, with an 87% chance of a decrease expected. Traders expect the central bank to lower its key overnight lending rate by another quarter percentage point, similar to its decreases in September and October. CVS was among the winners rising almost 5% due to a better-than-expected profit outlook for next year.
On the other hand, Netflix shares slipped over 3% due to a last-minute hostile bid by Paramount for Warner Bros. Discovery, disrupting Netflix’s plans to acquire the company. Nvidia shares rose as the Trump administration is reportedly preparing to greenlight the sale of the company’s more powerful H200 chips to China.
The stock market’s performance reflects the anticipation of the Fed decision, and the market action over the last few weeks is indicating a high likelihood of a 25 basis point cut. However, signs of division within the Fed or indications that its independence is compromised could impact Treasury yields and the stock market.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose this month amid investor concerns about inflation and the status of the Fed’s continued easing. The likely impact of inflation on the economy and the central bank’s ability to keep easing is uncertain, presenting a risk to the market.
Investors are eyeing an exciting week ahead with the last Federal Reserve meeting for 2025 and key corporate earnings expected to drive market activity. The S&P 500 closed Friday just shy of the 6,900 mark, and the market is largely expecting a 0.25% rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting, given the recent weakening job market data. The expected rate cut drops federal rates from 3.75%-4.00% to a new target of 3.50%-3.75%. Any clues about the Central Bank’s future course in the press conference following the meeting will be closely watched.
Corporate earnings will also be in the spotlight this week, with Oracle and Adobe (Wednesday), and Broadcom and Costco (Thursday) announcing quarterly results. To date, 83% of S&P 500 companies have reported better-than-expected earnings, and 76% had better-than-expected revenue. Notably, the tech sector lead, with 94% beating earnings expectations and 89% surpassing revenue estimates.
However, US stocks fell on Monday as markets anticipate the Fed’s decision and mixed corporate news. The Dow Jones fell 0.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. Notable stock movements included Nvidia shares rising following reports of the Trump administration’s potential approval for its chip sales to China and Netflix shares dipping over 3% amid acquisition drama involving Warner Bros. Discovery.
The overall performance of the market will depend on the outcomes of the Fed’s meeting and key earnings reports. If the S&P 500 manages to breach the key technical level of 6,900, the broad-market index could reach new highs. Finally, the key stocks to watch for the week include Oracle, Lululemon, and Costco, as their earnings results and future guidance could significantly impact their short-term stock performance.
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